Predicting the Book Market

Want to know the no. #1 question I am consistently asked? Do you think my idea will sell? I honestly have no clue. When I get asked that question, I call it the million-dollar question. We're talking about a finicky market in which many, many factors come to bear. A book release literally can be derailed by a hurricane trumping the news. I kid you not. It depends on the market's attention on that day. It depends on tastes, interests and hobbies -- and what the public's favors on any given day, month or year is hard to predict. Is the public sick of vampires and werewolves yet? You think the interest has waned and then BAM! Some unique book on the subject hits the shelves and flies. Some people are really good at figuring it out, but even these people have some bombs, too. What do they say? You're only as good as your last movie ... it's true. You can have market cache one day and be the has-been the next. So when I'm asked that question, all I can say is this, "We've had four Amazon best-sellers -- and of those best-sellers I predicted only two of them raising the charts." It's honest. It's true. And that's my best answer.